Global IPCC Climate Change Predictions
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers. In this document, the organization issued a dire warning that rising temperatures accelerated by anthropogenic activity would severely impact civilizations on a global, long-term scale. A slight temperature fluctuation could result in shifting weather patterns, bringing drought to some areas and increased precipitation to others. Areas experiencing drought would experience a disruption of agricultural practices leading to decreased production of food and the economic impacts associated with it. Famine could follow. Areas experiencing increased precipitation would be faced with flooding, increased incidences of disease-carrying insects, and sanitation issues resulting in illness. Rising temperatures would also contribute to the melting of land ice, which would contribute to sea level rise and inundate hundreds of millions of people living in coastal regions (Bernstein et al. 2007).
IPCC Predictions for Nepal
The IPCC has predicted that temperatures in Nepal will increase over the next several decades in conjunction with the global trend. The image below shows projected surface temperature changes through the end of the 21st century. The IPCC expects Nepal’s mean surface temperature to increase 3-4 degrees Celsius by the year 2099. Temperature data collected at a Kathmandu weather station over the last 15 years supports the warming trend predicted by the IPCC. |
| Image: IPCC Summary for Policymakers 2007 |
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| A 15 year span of maximum temperature data from a Kathmandu weather station reveals positive trends in summer and winter. Data: weatheronline.co.uk |
These rising temperatures will likely cause some trouble for Nepal in the next century in the form of melting Himalayan glaciers. Himalayan glacier melt feeds Asia’s five largest rivers, including the Ganges, which serve as drinking water and irrigation water for millions downstream. The IPCC says, “Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. There is high confidence that some hydrological systems have also been affected through increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier and snow-fed rivers” (Bernstein et al 2).
Since the IPCC’s 2007 synthesis report, new research has indicated that Himalayan glaciers are not melting as quickly as anticipated. In fact, some are growing: “The Himalayan glaciers that feed Asia's five largest rivers are in no danger of disappearing by 2035, as claimed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent report. In fact, only the glaciers that melt into the Ganges are shrinking . . . at a rate of 22 centimeters per year. The glaciers that sit at the head of the Indus grew at a rate of 19 centimeters per year on average, while those that melt into the other rivers in the study were unchanged” (Barley 2010).
These glaciers, healthy now, can only physically exist under certain conditions. Thus, melting glaciers are a long-term concern. Receding glaciers would have significant impact on Nepal’s economy, but will not severely affect its water availability. Nepal’s rivers are fed by glacial melt to an extent, but the country relies much more heavily on precipitation to keep streams flowing; in fact, a recent model indicates that melt accounts for less than 10 percent of the total water volume in the Ganges (Barley 2010).
Nepal has two climate zones according to the Koppen-Geiger climate classification system: humid subtropical and highland subtropical. The IPCC predicted “very likely precipitation increases in high latitudes and likely decreases in most subtropical land regions, continuing observed recent trends” (Bernstein et al. 8). Although the climate of Nepal would put it in line for a decrease in precipitation according to this estimate, there is one large mitigating factor that could prevent the country from feeling the brunt of climate change.
Nepal relies on the ITCZ to manufacture its summer monsoon. Kathmandu receives, on average, 1250 mm of rain from May through October. Approximately 150 mm of rain falls during the rest of the year. According to this data, Kathmandu receives about 90 percent of its total rainfall during the summer monsoon (weather-and-climate.com 2009).
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| http://www.weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-precipitationRainfall,Katmandu,Nepal |
Nepal’s monsoon is significant to its survival on a warming planet. The IPCC acknowledges that there is little evidence to conclude that monsoons will be severely affected by climate change: “Confidence is low in projections of changes in monsoons (rainfall, circulation) because there is little consensus in climate models regarding the sign of future change in the monsoons” (Field et al. 13). In short, there is no evidence to conclude that South Asia’s summer monsoon would change in any significant way.
While the IPCC has predicted higher temperatures and less precipitation for most subtropical regions, it has also forecasted the possibility that monsoon patterns may continue unabated. Thus, it will likely not experience any significant water scarcity due to rainfall.Potential Extreme Events
Nepal is in less danger than much of the world in the face of rising temperatures. There is some danger of flooding along Nepal’s riverbanks in the face of rapidly melting glaciers, which may be offset by a slight decrease in precipitation during the winter months. The danger for flooding increases downstream in India and Bangladesh where inundation is already a significant threat.
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| The Kosi River flows south through Nepal and into India where it joins the Ganges. During the summer, the river overflows with monsoon rain, flooding villages. This is how the Kosi got its nickname, the “River of Sorrow”. Image: http://www.southasiatimes.com.au/news/indian-armed-forces-carry-out-massive-rescue-relief-effort-to-fight-kosi-floods-in-bihar/ |
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| Bangladesh, which is largely situated on a floodplain, is in the path of the Ganges. The Ganges, fed partially by glacial melt, is in danger of overflowing its banks as Himalayan glaciers begin to melt rapidly. Image: http://geobytesgcse.blogspot.com/2006/12/flooding-in-ledc-1998-floods-in.html |
Another effect of melting glaciers, which could affect Nepal directly, is the increased danger for mass wasting events: In its Special Report, the IPCC says “there is high confidence that changes in heat waves, glacial retreat, and/or permafrost degradation will affect high mountain phenomena such as slope instabilities, movements of mass, and glacial lake outburst floods” (Field et al. 13). Landslides occur where soil becomes overly saturated and the soil structure beneath it can no longer support its weight. Similarly, rock slides occur when water saturates a rock’s pore spaces and fissures and erodes it such that it breaks away and tumbles dramatically down slope. Much of Nepal’s population resides in rural, mountain communities and are already at risk for mass wasting events.
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| Nepal, because of its summer monsoon, is already at risk for flood and landslide events. Image: http://www.who.int/hac/crises/npl/maps/en/ |
Potential Physical and Economic Effects
A developing country, Nepal lacks the resources and infrastructure to withstand any significant divergence from its established way of life. Its ability to adapt to climate change is limited: “fatality rates and economic losses expressed as a proportion of gross product (GDP) are higher in developing countries. During the period from 1970 to 2008, over 95% of deaths from natural disasters occurred in developing countries” (Field et al. 7). That being said, Nepal is in little danger of falling completely. Temperatures will rise steadily and glaciers, subsequently, will melt steadily. The risk of catastrophic flooding is therefore minimal.
For Nepal, the most concerning aspect of climate change is the effect rising temperatures could have on its economy. Agriculture is the mainstay of Nepal and comprises about 38 percent of its economy. Rising temperatures could compromise Nepal’s ability to produce food goods; more irrigation will become necessary in order to sustain crops. Although Nepal’s water supply is not currently in extreme danger, the increased demand for water could strain its rivers in the future.
Climate change could also deal a blow to Nepal’s tourism industry. Tourism is Nepal’s second most important industry after agriculture (ZRS 6) and about 17.5 percent of tourists come to Nepal for trekking or mountaineering (ZRS 34). Much Himalayan trekking depends heavily on the presence of snow and glaciers. Mount Everest, for example, cannot be climbed bare. Nepal’s government charges $10,000 for an Everest climbing permit (Hamilton 2011). Hundreds of climbers attempt Everest each year from the Nepal side, bringing significant income into the country. Thus, the melting of Mt. Everest alone could severely cripple the nation.
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| This image shows the standard route of Mt. Everest approaching from the Nepal side. The massive Khumbu glacier forms the initial leg of the climb. Snow and ice covering some steeper sections of the mountain provide the traction needed to ascend. Without this snow cover, the mountain is a highly technical climb beyond most people's abilities. Image: http://www.greatoutdoors.com/everest-2009/routes-maps |
Mitigative Measures
The National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change (NAPA) is an organization that assists lesser developed countries including Nepal to “prioritize urgent and immediate adaptation actions” (NAPA 2010). The overall structure of the NAPA has three components. The first is the “preparation and dissemination of a NAPA document” The second is the “development and maintenance of a climate change knowledge management and learning platform for Nepal” and the third is the “development of a multi-stakeholder framework of action on climate change in Nepal” (NAPA 2010). In short, the organization provides educational literature on preparation for climate change, assists the country in adapting to it, and assembles a support system through which to enact these mitigative measures. The IPCC endorses this type of response: “Closer integration of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation along with the incorporation of both into local, sub-national, national, and international development policies and practices could provide benefits at all scales” (Field et al. 9).
Some of climate change’s effects, like the detriment to Nepal’s trekking industry, cannot be avoided. But some adaptive measures are possible including agricultural accommodation and the preparation of villages for possible flood events.
References
Barley, Shanta. "Himalayan Ice is Stable, but Asia Faces Drought". New Scientist. June 2010.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19029-himalayan-ice-is-stable-but-asia-faces-drought.html
Bernstein,
Lenny et al. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge UK and
New York USA. IPCC, 2007.
Field,
C.B. et al. Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press:
Cambridge UK and New York USA. IPCC,
2012.
Hamilton, Leslie. What it Costs to Climb Mt. Everest. 2012.
http://outdoors.whatitcosts.com/mt-everest.htm.
National Adaptation Programme of Action to Climate Change (NAPA). "About Napa". 2010. http://www.climatenepal.org.np/main/?p=aboutnapa&sp=about_napa
ZRS. Nepal Tourism Sector Analysis. Asia Invest: European Cooperation Office, EU: 2008.
ZRS. Nepal Tourism Sector Analysis. Asia Invest: European Cooperation Office, EU: 2008.
